NCAR Loses 6,873 Members Since 2007

Enrollment in the North Carolina Association of Realtors (NCAR) continued to dive in March 2009, as 1,062 members dropped out during the month, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). 23 states/territories saw a slight increase in membership. While five of the 10 largest chapters saw an increase in membership, North Carolina, eight in size, saw a decrease of 2.81% in March

Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina all added members in January 2009. The NCAR membership roll as of 2/28/2009, is 36,696 - the lowest since April 2006. This is 2.81% below the February enrollment of 37,758 and 11.67% below the 2/29/2008 enrollment of 41,542 making for a 12 month loss of 4,846 members.

Membership in NCAR peaked in November 2007 at 43,569 and the current roll of 36,696 represents a loss of 6,873 members or a 15.77% decline since then.

NCAR Loses 857 Members in February

Enrollment in the North Carolina Association of Realtors (NCAR) took another dive in February 2009, shedding 857 members, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina all added members in January 2009. The NCAR membership roll of 37,758 as of 2/28/2009, is the lowest since June 2006. This is 2.22% below the January enrollment of 38,615 and 10.04% below the 2/29/2008 enrollment of 41,970 making for a 12 month loss of 4,212 members. Membership in NCAR peaked in November 2007 at 43,569 and the current roll of 37,758 represents a loss of 5,811 members or a 13.34% decline since then.

Gimme Gimme Gimme

In a letter last month to the Raleigh News & Observer, Julie Woodson of the NC Association of Realtors comes with Lexus cupholder in hand for a government handout of $15,000 per home sale which, by strange coincidence, is also the amount of a 6.0% commission on an average home price of $250,000.

NC Realtors have spent millions to stop a 0.4% transfer tax which would help local governments deal with growth by providing communities with services that add real value to real property, not the Ponzi style value of the housing bubble that got us into this economic mess.

It takes some nerve to ask for 15 times more than you’re willing to concede. If NC Realtors want government assistance and for "all parties to work together" they might stop wasting their members’ money attacking government in the first place.

NCAR Loses 1,573 Members in January

Enrollment in the North Carolina Association of Realtors (NCAR) took a steep dive in January 2009, shedding 1,573 members, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The membership roll of 38,615 as of 1/31/2009, is the lowest since June 2006. This is 3.91% below the 2008 year end enrollment of 40,188 and 9.7% below the 1/31/2008 enrollment of 42,765 making for a 12 month loss of 4,150 members. Membership in NCAR peaked in November 2007 at 43,569 and the current roll of 38,615 represents a loss of 4,954 members or an 11.37% decline since then.

The decline in membership also represents a shrinking of the market for the products of NCAR's for-profit subsidiaries RealFast and RealServ.

Avery Recount Pending

Reports from Avery County suggest that official results from the 19 precincts may differ from the polled results on election night. Some numbers may have been misread sufficient to change the result. A recount has been expected given the slim margin in unofficial results in favor of the transfer tax. Official results to be released Tuesday may show majority with a slimmer margin opposed to the transfer tax. Either way a contentious recount is expected.

Update:

According to unofficial results revised today 2/9/09 by the State Board of Elections, with 19 of 19 precincts reporting the votes were 1,405 for and 1,437 against (49.44% for and 50.56% against). A total of 2,842 votes were counted out of 2,844 cast. Turnout was 22.39% of 12,700 registered voters.

On election night unofficial results by the State Board of Elections, with 19 of 19 precincts reported that votes were 1,434 for and 1,409 against (50.44% for and 49.56% against). A total of 2,843 votes were counted out of 2,845 cast. Turnout was 22.40% of 12,700 registered voters.

Update 2/10/09:

The numbers keep changing. The most recent revision shows 1,414 for 1,449 against, which is a margin of 35 to defeat the transfer tax. At 49.39% for 50.61% against the margin is still less than 1%

Avery County Transfer Tax Succeeds

It looks like the transfer tax referendum was approved in Avery County today.

According to the State Board of Elections, with 19 of 19 precincts reporting the votes were 1,434 for and 1,409 against (50.44% for and 49.56% against). A total of 2,843 votes were counted out of 2,845 cast. Turnout was 22.40% of 12,700 registered voters.

As the County Commissioners appear to have wanted this authority it is likely to be put into effect.

From the statutes authorizing the tax:

If the majority of those voting in a referendum held pursuant to this Article vote for the levy of the tax, the board of county commissioners may, by resolution and after 10 days' public notice, levy a local land transfer tax on instruments conveying interests in real property located in the county, up to a rate of four-tenths percent (0.4%), in increments of one-tenth percent (0.1%).

Realtor Political Stimulus Package

The North Carolina Association of Realtors (NCAR) reported spending $373,155 through the North Carolina Homeowners Alliance (NCHA) for direct mail services for 4 NC House seats, 4 NC Senate seats and 2 County Commissioner races in the 2008 election. The money went to Cornerstone Solutions & Communications according to a post-election report filed with the IRS.

Separate reports filed with the NC State Board of Elections (SBOE) by the NCHA show spending on direct mail services and on phone calls for for 4 NC Senate seats and only 3 House seats totalling $228,834. In one House race, District 41 in Wake County, NCHA spent $52,578 in negative campaigning against incumbent Ty Harrell and $4,995 in calls for his opponent Brian Gossage, a total of $57,574 for that seat.

It would appear that the balance of $144,321 was spent by the NCHA on County Commissioner races. However, the only known county (and referenced in IRS filings) was Wake County and the race known to have been targeted was in County District 4 where, despite the realtors' opposition, challenger Stan Norwalk successfully ran against incumbent Kenn Gardner.

The spending through NCHA was complemented by spending through other entities. In addition to direct contributions to candidates, the NC Realtors PAC reported to the SBOE a payment of $209,640 to Cornerstone Solutions & Communications 10/3/08 for "mail pieces". The Third Quarter report only shows spending through 10/18/08 which, for the 2007-08 election cycle, had amounted to $1,033,966. Spending through November 4th, election day, will not be known until 4th Quarter reports are filed at the end of this month.

NCAR Loses 3,154 Members in 2008

Membership in the North Carolina Association of Realtors (NCAR) continued to decline through the end of 2008, having peaked in 2007, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The current membership roll of 40,188 as of 12/31/2008, is the lowest since October 2006. This is 7.28% below the 2007 year end enrollment of 43,342 and shows a loss of 3,154 members.

This is reflects a national decline in NAR membership which saw an average drop of 10.50% from 1,338,001 members to 1,197,529 being the lowest since July 2005 and showing a loss of 140,472 members since 12/31/2007. Membership in NAR peaked in October 2006 at 1,370,758. The only three territories that saw an increase in membership since 12/31/2007 were South Dakota (+2 members), North Dakota (+50) and Guam (+17).

The rate of growth in NCAR membership peaked in 2006 at 17% slowing to 5% in 2007 before turning negative for the first time in about 15 years. NCAR's membership decline of 7.28% closely matches Virginia's membership decline of 7.84%, and outperforms neighboring states: Tennessee declined 10.63%, South Carolina 10.72%, Georgia 20.06% (the greatest of any state) and Florida membership declined 15.14% since 12/31/2007.

NCAR Membership Continues Decline

Membership in the North Carolina Association of Realtors (NCAR) declined further in 2008 having peaked in 2007, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The current membership roll of 41,044 as of 11/30/2008 is 5.8% below the enrollment of 43,569 at the same time last year, a loss of 2,525 members, and is below the 2007 year end total of 43,342 members. This is consistent with a national decline in NAR membership which saw an average drop of 9.24% from 1,357,993 members to 1,232,521, a loss of 125,472 members since 11/30/2007.

Membership in NAR peaked in October 2006 at 1,370,758. The only three territories that saw an increase in membership since 11/30/2007 were South Dakota (+7 members), North Dakota (+28) and Guam (+21). The rate of growth in NCAR membership peaked in 2006 at 17% slowing to 5% in 2007 before turning negative for the first time in about 15 years.  NCAR's membership decline of 5.8% still outperforms neighboring states: Virginia membership declined 11.43%, Tennessee 8.94%, South Carolina 9.3%, Georgia 14.22% and Florida membership declined 13.25% since 11/30/2007.

Alt-A and Option ARM Meltdown Coming

A Second Mortgage Disaster On The Horizon?
A Sixty Minutes story explains that the housing bubble is not finished bursting by a long shot.

As correspondent Scott Pelley reports, it turns out the abyss is deeper than most people think because there is a second mortgage shock heading for the economy. In the executive suites of Wall Street and Washington, you're beginning to hear alarm about a new wave of mortgages with strange names that are about to become all too familiar. If you thought sub-primes were insanely reckless wait until you hear what's coming.

Learn how Alt-A and Option ARM mortgage defaults are leading a second wave of foreclosures.

New Take on the American dream

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008
Audio Report by Chris Fitzsimon [Click here to listen]

Election Brief

Ty Harrell and Cullie Tarleton return to the NC House, Tony Foriest returns to the NC Senate and, Stan Norwalk gets elected as Wake County Commissioner despite the best efforts of NC Realtors to defeat them. Transfer tax proposals in Polk and Tyrrell Counties were defeated as were some sales tax increases but some bonds were approved. Voters don't like to be taxed but they like having a say about it.

Realtors Spend Against Ty Harrell, Tony Foriest

Realtors dropped some last minute money on attacking NC District 41 Representative Ty Harrell and promoting his opponent Bryan Gossage, a darling of the right-wing. The NC Realtors also put more money into calls for Realtor Rick Gunn, their chosen candidate running against Tony Foriest, NC Senate District 24, who supported giving counties the option for a transfer tax:

Not all senators in swing districts are against the proposal. Sen. Tony Foriest, a freshman Democrat from fast-growing Alamance County, said he can support the proposal because it requires county voters to approve it before it could go into effect. He agreed with Easley that a land transfer tax could give counties another option to raise revenues rather than relying on the property tax. The six counties in Basnight's district have a 1 percent land transfer tax, and officials there say they have been able to keep property taxes low as a result.

"You might find yourself in a situation where the land transfer tax might be more palatable," Foriest said.

Harrell and Foriest are both African-American. Gossage and Gunn are white.

Tarleton Targeted Update: Soucek Did Not Pay

On October 8th we had a post entitled Tarleton Targeted about The NC Realtors' favorite push polling company, Fallon Research & Communication, targeting State Representative Cullie Tarleton in his bid for re-election. Tarleton has had the temerity to oppose the realtors political positions. Opponent Dan Soucek was unlikely to have paid for the polling given his limited campaign funds.

Third quarter campaign finance reports now indicate that this is likely the case. Soucek did not report any payments to Fallon Research & Communication and the only expenditures reported by a campaign to Fallon Research & Communication in 2008 have been:

$10,000.00    04/28/2008
NC REALTORS PAC for POLLING

$39,300.00    09/24/2008
NC REALTORS PAC for POLLING

$9,250.00    09/24/2008
LES MERRITT COMMITTEE for RESEARCH

Realtors, Builders Give Big to Kenn Gardner

From today's Raleigh News & Observer:

Realtors, builders spend heavily to back Gardner

An undisclosed amount spent on attack ads by the N.C. Homeowners Alliance, a group created by the N.C. Association of Realtors.

In addition to the ads against [Stan] Norwalk, Realtors and others tied to development stepped up to support [Kenn] Gardner's campaign. Of the $21,261 in receipts reported since July 1, about 71 percent came from Realtors, builders and others involved with construction.
   :::::
Gardner also got $8,000 from the N.C. Realtors Political Action Committee and the PAC of the N.C. Home Builders Association. Gardner did not respond to a message seeking comment.

Norwalk said Friday he has no hope of keeping pace with what the Realtors are spending to attack him. Disclosure reports filed with the state Board of Elections show that the Homeowners Alliance has received at least $880,457 from the Realtors association.

4th NC Realtor Mailer Attacking Stan Norwalk

Here's the 4th realtor mailer attacking Stan Norwalk which is the 2nd specifically from the NC Realtors PAC:
· NCAR Flyer #2 PDF on the web
Copy of the N&O articles referenced (out of context) in the NCAR flyer:
· 10/2/2003 Article
Stan Norwalk wasn't proposing a reassignment plan. He was just pointing to the Charlotte experience to help people better understand the implications of various kinds of choice related to schools in Wake County.

Mary Edna Williams - Be Very Ashamed

Mary Edna Williams is 2009 President-elect of the North Carolina Association of Realtors and President of the NC Homeowners Alliance responsible for the content of this disgusting mailer that came in Wake County mailboxes this afternoon.

Do unto others as you would have others do unto you. That belief and a strong work ethic is the standard that Mary Edna Williams lives by.

Mary Edna Williams website

Is this what you would have others "do unto you" Mary Edna? Or this? Or this? Do you really think what you are doing to Stan Norwalk and Ty Harrell is consistent with the Code of Ethics that "Sets REALTORS® Apart"? Is it really a standard you live by?

Code of Ethics Sets REALTORS® Apart
Here’s a general overview of just a few of the key principles REALTORS® willingly agree to under the Code:
· REALTORS® avoid practices, which may harm the public.
· REALTORS® do not exaggerate, misrepresent or conceal facts related to property or transactions.
· REALTORS® protect and promote their clients’ interests and treat all parties fairly.
· REALTORS® represent themselves truthfully in advertising and other public forums.

Yeah, right.

Morning Cuppa

In an Editorial this morning the Raleigh News & Observer says that the NC Realtors attacks on Stan Norwalk and Ty Harrell are
Over the top

This is bush-league politics. The supporters of a transfer tax are welcome to their view, and the real estate brokers are welcome to their view, and the voters are welcome to decide their position on candidates based on that alone, if that's what they want to do. But deceptive efforts such as this one don't inform. They assault.

Chris Fitzsimon explores the realtors' silver lining in the housing cloud in last night's Fitzsimon File:
Making six percent on the American nightmare

The people of North Carolina are getting a reminder this fall of where some of that billions in annual profit ends up, paying for misleading ads in local tax votes and offensive attacks against candidates for the General Assembly and county commissions.

Realtor-funded group rips candidates

Ripped from the front page of the Raleigh News & Observer:

Realtor-funded group rips candidates
Two mailers have been sent against a Wake commissioner candidate. A state lawmaker is also a target.

A land transfer tax has never appeared on the ballot in Wake County, but you wouldn't know it from the money the state's real estate agents are spending to influence voters. A group called the N.C. Homeowners Alliance is using a direct-mail campaign and automated phone calls that depict Stan Norwalk, a Democratic candidate for Wake commissioner, as a serial tax raiser.

The group also has sent fliers to Wake voters attacking state Rep. Ty Harrell, who represents a district in the western part of the county, for not supporting a 2007 bill that would have required members of the Wake County school board to be elected at large, rather than in districts. The bill, backed by Republicans, never came up for a vote and died in committee. When he saw the mailer, Harrell, a Democrat, said he was confused.

The alliance's president is Mary Edna Williams, a Raleigh real estate agent who is also the president-elect of the N.C. Association of Realtors. When called about the alliance's ads, Williams referred all questions to Julie Woodson, the director of public affairs for the Realtors Association.

Change My World

More Realtor Attacks on Norwalk

There's a new flyer out, worse than the first, this time direct from the NC Association of Realtors PAC attacking Stan Norwalk for Wake County Commissioner and urging people to "Vote against Stan on Election Day".

· NCAR Flyer PDF on the web

Copies of the N&O articles referenced (out of context) in the NCAR flyer:
· 8/19/2000 Article
· 5/8/2002 Article

The state Court of Appeals on Tuesday upheld the dismissal of a campaign finance complaint against a political action committee that supported Cary Mayor Glen Lang and a slate of growth-control candidates running for the Cary Town Council three years ago.

This was the lead paragraph in the article that the NC Realtors reference to support their statement that Stan Norwalk has a "shady past". Having a politically motivated case brought against you dismissed gives you a shady past?

Link to Appeals Court and Supreme Court Opinions clearing Stan Norwalk and the other "Grumpy Old Men":
· Appeals Court Opinion
· Supreme Court Opinion

Also previously, NC Realtors have been fined big bucks by FEC:
· FEC Fined Realtors $78,000 for Burr Campaigning
· High Point Realtors Coerced PAC Payments

 

Just the Facts Ma'am

Campaign Finance 2008 Third Quarter for: NC REALTORS PAC [STA-C3219N-C-001]

Detailed Expenditures. Some notable expenditures:

10/3/2008 $209,640.00 [$209,640.00] CORNERSTONE SOLUTIONS & COMMUNICATIONS LLC
9/24/2008 $39,300.00 [$49,300.00] FALLON RESEARCH & COMMUNICATION, INC.
9/24/2008 $30,000.00 [$38,500.00] NORTH CAROLINA HOMEOWNERS ALLIANCE
10/18/2008 $27,449.52 [$174,466.43] North Carolina Association of Realtors, Inc.
10/03/2008 $8,500.00 [$38,500.00] NORTH CAROLINA HOMEOWNERS ALLIANCE
09/08/2008 $4,000.00 [$4,000.00] KENN GARDENER FOR WAKE COUNTY COMMISSIONER
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$4,000.00] BEVERLY PERDUE FOR NC GOVERNOR
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$4,000.00] BRYAN GOSSAGE FOR NC HOUSE
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$8,000.00] David Hoyle for NC Senate
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$4,000.00] DEBBIE CLARY FOR NC SENATE
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$8,000.00] Harold J. Brubaker for NC House
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$6,000.00] JIMMY LOVE, SR. FOR NC HOUSE
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$8,000.00] John Snow For NC Senate
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$4,000.00] Julia Boseman For NC Senate
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$8,000.00] Lorene T. Coates For NC House
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$5,000.00] LOUIS M. PATE, JR. FOR NC SENATE
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$5,000.00] Neal Hunt For NC Senate
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$6,000.00] Nelson Dollar For NC House
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$8,000.00] PAT MCCRORY FOR GOVERNOR
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$8,000.00] Paul Stam For NC House
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$8,000.00] Philip E. Berger For NC Senate
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$4,000.00] Pryor Gibson For NC House
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$4,000.00] RICHARD GUNN FOR NC SENATE
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$8,000.00] Tom Apodaca For NC Senate
09/16/2008 $4,000.00 [$5,000.00] William C. McGee For NC House

     Amounts in brackets [-] are cumulative for the 2008 election cycle.

Legalese

This morning I spoke with attorney representing the North Carolina Association of Realtors (NCAR). He declined to submit concerns in writing but they relate to three posts, made in the last few days, which he requested that I remove and recognize with an apology.

In my posts I try to strive to present an abundance of fact, spiced with opinion, believing that sunlight is the best disinfectant and that humor is the best medicine.

I have been dismayed in recent days at attacks on Stan Norwalk, a candidate for Wake County Commissioner, a thoughtful, knowledgeable, "Grumpy Old Man", simultaneously cantankerous and congenial and, a persistent advocate for the public good. Those are my opinions. The attacks have been funded by the North Carolina Association of Realtors. That is a fact.

My respect for Stan and my disdain for the political activities of NCAR may have led to a contraction of fact and opinion such that a reader might consider them indistinguishable. I have revised two posts to avoid that confusion. I have removed one post which I will repost later with a clarification.

The posts were not intended to suggest illegal or unlawful activity or violations of criminal law where none exist.

I willingly correct mis-statements of fact and mitigate any misunderstanding of opinion. I have done so on occasion, when requested and often when not. Any reader is free to communicate by commenting or by email to gregflynn@bluenc.com. No posse is necessary. For my part I will strive to do a better job of separating the illicit from the merely reprehensible.

 

Pop-Pop for Wake County Commissioner

Stan Norwalk, candidate for Wake County Commissioner, gets his family's endorsement: